- Today, October 1, 2025, at 00:01 US Eastern time, the federal government officially suspended work (shutdown) because Congress did not have time to pass a law on financing for the new fiscal year.
- The reason is the failure to pass the interim budget bill (Continuing Resolution) in the Senate after the House of Representatives passed its version. Democrats insisted on including provisions for extending medical subsidies and canceling some cuts to health and social programs, which Republicans refused to include.
- As a result, many federal agencies are required to shut down “non-vital” functions, and hundreds of thousands of employees will be put on unpaid leave (furlough).
- At the same time, important functions related to national security, healthcare, law enforcement, transport, etc. will continue, but often without payment until the issue of financing is resolved.
- For example, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will have to send about 11,000 employees (about a quarter of the staff) on leave, although air traffic control functions will partially remain. It is also projected that up to 750,000 federal workers could be affected by daily furloughs, resulting in compensation losses and reduced consumer spending.
- The government shutdown has already begun, and some agencies have begun implementing plans to shut down “non-essential” functions.
- This is the first shutdown since 2019 and one of the most notable in recent years due to active rhetoric, threats of layoffs and increased political tension.
How does this affect the cryptocurrency market
Clarified risks
- Increased emotional factor and panic
Since the event has already taken place, uncertainty is increasing — investors will be watching literally every step of the authorities. This contributes to increased volatility, especially in markets with a high proportion of speculative capital, such as cryptocurrencies. - Deterioration of the macroeconomic picture
Sending hundreds of thousands of government employees on unpaid leave means a reduction in consumer spending and a possible slowdown in the economy. This reduces the appetite for risky assets and can lead to an outflow of capital from cryptocurrencies. - The regulatory pause is becoming a reality
Authorities like the SEC and the CFTC are working with minimal staff, which means delays in approving ETFs, licenses, and new regulations. This increases the uncertainty for institutional players. - High shock effect in the early days
Sharp price fluctuations are possible in the coming hours and days — first down if investors massively reduce risk, then rebounds are possible when news of negotiations or a softening of the situation appears.
Scenarios for BTC and Altcoins
Bitcoin (BTC)
- Short-term: a recession is likely against the background of profit-taking and risk-taking.
- Medium-term: If news of progress in Congress or agreement emerges, BTC could bounce back quickly.
- With a prolonged shutdown: some investors may begin to consider bitcoin as “digital gold” and protection from political instability, which will give a positive impetus.
Altcoins
- Most often, they react more strongly and fall more than bitcoin on negative news.
- If the situation stabilizes, a sharp rebound is possible, especially for the most volatile tokens.
- Projects that depend on regulation will suffer more due to delays in the approval of initiatives.
Result
- Today’s shutdown has become a fact: Congress has failed to reach an agreement, and the government’s work has been partially halted.
- This has increased uncertainty and made the risks to the cryptocurrency market more tangible.
- Increased volatility is expected in the coming days, especially for altcoins.
- Further movement will depend on how quickly the political forces agree on the resumption of financing.
