The current picture. After a rally, ETH often enters a constructive consolidation phase: the price stays above the key EMAS, and the daily RSI is around 50-55, which corresponds to a “respite” before a potential trend continuation attempt. The historical area of 4.8–5.0 thousand looms at the top. $ is a psychological barrier and a technical marker.
Growth factors. On the side of the bulls are institutional inflows, the thesis of “profitability beyond Treasuries” and the developing L2 ecosystem. Increasing the share of staking reduces free supply, and improving the UX in the ecosystem (L2 networks, aggregators, wallets) creates demand from new users.
Traders’ opinions
Van de Poppe regularly focuses on holding the supports during corrections — this is the basis for the next impulse. Rekt Capital draws attention to the “repainting” of the levels: the former resistance after the breakdown should become support. Peter Brandt emphasizes the importance of confirmed breakouts: without volume and consolidation above the breakout zone, the signal is weaker.
Technical levels.- Resistance levels: $4,700-4,800, historical zone of $4,800-5,000.
- Supports: $4,300- 4,250, then $4,100- 4,050; deeper — $3,800-3,600.
Indicators
The “golden cross” on the day has already been won back, so the convergence of volume and momentum is more important now. RSI > 60 at the breakdown of $ 4,800 increases the probability of acceleration. On the lower timeframes (4H), keep an eye on the EMA band: its reversal often anticipates the daily signal.
Scenarios
- Positive. A steady consolidation above $4,800 and a series of daily closures near $4,900-5,000 create the conditions for a passage to $ 5,200-5,500. An additional driver is an improvement in the macro background and an increase in the share of ETH in the pair to BTC. Disability is a refund of under $4,700 and a loss of $4,300- 4,250.
- Neutral. The range of $4,250- 4,800: the market is “digesting” past fluctuations, the RSI is 48-55, the volumes are average. This is a borderless trading mode where discipline and risk management are important.
- Negative. A loss of $4,250-4,100 increases the chance of a descent to $3,800-3,600. Triggers: global risk-off, decline in on-chain activity, negative regulation. In this case, a longer consolidation period is likely before a new growth attempt.
Bottom line. ETH remains one of the main beneficiaries of capital inflows into the crypto “mainstream”. To storm the historical zone, the market needs synchronization of technology (volume + fixation) and the news background.
Cryptocurrencies are a high—risk asset. All levels and scenarios are provided for analytics and training purposes and are not a financial recommendation. Manage the risk and check the plan against your own horizon and assumptions.
